The events of the period of autumn 2013 - spring 2014 in Ukraine led to the loss of social, economic and political stability. It all started with the desire of the people (or a certain part of it) to be part of the European Union. Now, after all that has happened, what are Ukraine's real chances of joining the EU?
Will Ukraine join the EU: the formal side of the issue
In most cases, any political question can be answered only in a conditional mood - guesses, analytics and intuition. And when it comes to a state in which a revolution only recently took place, then everything becomes even more complicated.
On the one hand, the doors of the European Union are open for Ukraine. Formally speaking.
If we take into account the association agreement with the European Union signed by the Ukrainian minister on March 24, we can say that Ukraine is moving confidently towards a European, democratic future - this document is the recognition of Ukraine's sovereignty and integrity, and it is the association agreement that lays the foundation for reforms in the field of law, legal proceedings and other spheres of the country's life.
It should be noted right away that the "preamble" signed on March 24, 2014, that is, only the political part of the association agreement with the EU, does not in any way affect the country's economy and social sphere. It can only be called a "beginning."
Whether such a beginning will continue is unknown. Perhaps this will exhaust the EU's credit of confidence - too much depends on how events in Ukraine will develop in 2014.
We should not forget that, although the current government of Ukraine was (formally) recognized as legitimate by the EU and the United States, ministers and political scientists of the same countries express great concern about who is actually conducting the current political elite of Ukraine.
Real acceptance of Ukraine by the European Union. Whether there is a…?
Political scientist Aleksey Poltorakov: "Of course, the EU does not want to sign the economic part of the agreement with some kind of hodgepodge that is now in power in Ukraine. Their position is simple - the EU does not need an unstable state."
If we push aside the formalities and discuss the realities, it turns out that the European Union is not at all interested in Ukraine joining their ranks.
The main reason for this is the unstable political and social situation inside the country: people's distrust of the government, the separatist movements that have begun in southeastern Ukraine and chaos in the security and police structures.
The European Union will not shelter someone who will only bring problems in the future.
The economic factor can act as the second reason not in favor of integration - Ukraine produces almost nothing, therefore, possible accession to the EU will simply squeeze all the juice out of the depleted economy of this country. Both the European Union and Ukrainian analysts understand this.
