Inflation in Russia during 2013 was at an extremely high level, which led to a significant increase in prices. In particular, such important groups of goods as food and electricity have risen in price. So far, the situation in terms of price dynamics in 2014 coincides with the negative trends of the last year.
Price dynamics at the beginning of 2014
According to Rosstat, in the first quarter of 2014, the consumer price index was 101.9% (compared to the previous quarter). The largest growth was observed in consumer goods - 103.2%, for non-food products the growth was 101.1%, for services - by 101.4%. The weakening of the ruble had a great impact on the price dynamics, which led to an increase in the cost of imported goods.
From the beginning of the year to mid-May 2014, prices increased by 3.8%. For comparison, in 2013 this dynamics was 2.8%.
According to the forecasts of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, prices will increase by 7.5% in the first half of 2014, but inflation will slow down by the end of the year. The situation should be normalized due to the weakening of the effect of the depreciation of the ruble, lower rates of indexation of tariffs of natural monopolies, as well as a good harvest. Among food products, in the first half of May 2014, the highest growth rates were observed in the cost of pork (+ 2.6%), cabbage (+ 6.2%), onions (+ 5.5%), and potatoes (+ 3.2%). At the same time, chicken eggs, on the contrary, fell in price (by 3.9%). Cucumbers and tomatoes also became more affordable (minus 9% and 6.2%). During this period, the price of gasoline increased by 0.2%.
Which products are forecast to have the largest price increase in 2014
According to experts, during 2014 the price increase will not be as noticeable as in 2013, but some goods will be distinguished by an accelerated increase in value. Among the goods for which the highest price increases are expected this year are gasoline, cigarettes, chocolate and wine. The rise in gasoline prices will be determined by the increase in excise taxes, which is planned for 2014-2016. It is assumed that by the end of 2014 the cost of a liter of average fuel will grow by 13%. The excise tax on Euro-4 in 2014 will increase to 9.9 thousand rubles. (from the current 8.9 thousand rubles), for Euro-5 - from 5.7 thousand rubles. up to 6.4 thousand rubles
In addition to excise taxes, the growth in the cost of gasoline will be affected by the conjuncture of world markets, as well as the general level of inflation.
Not everyone will soon be able to afford smoking. It is expected that within the framework of the anti-smoking policy, by 2016 the cheapest pack of cigarettes will cost 50 rubles. In 2014, excise taxes on tobacco products will grow by 45%, in 2015-2016. - by another 30%. Negative weather conditions adversely affected the yield of cocoa beans in Côte d'Ivoire (the country accounts for 40% of world production), as well as grapes in France. This could lead to higher prices for chocolate and French wine. It is assumed that in the period 2014-2016. excise taxes on wine (from 25 to 27 rubles / liter of alcohol), strong alcohol (from 500 to 600 rubles / liter of alcohol), and on alcohol with an alcohol content of less than 9% (from 400 to 550 rubles) will increase. will grow at a slower pace than before. As expected, the growth in the cost of housing and communal services by the end of 2014 will be 4.5-5.2%, compared to 9.9% in 2013.
