The most interesting events await Ukraine in the coming year. Because it is in the next year and a half that the scenario according to which the country will have to live in the coming years will be written. Will the country expect progress and prosperity, or will it fail to overcome internal and external crises? What will be the development of events largely depends on the Ukrainians themselves.
Instructions
Step 1
A bad scenario may look like this: the war going on in the territories of Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine will drag on, while politicians who are going to be elected to the Verkhovna Rada in October 2014, using dirty tricks of political technologies, will try to earn additional dividends on it.
Step 2
It is not difficult to earn such dividends in the current Ukrainian realities: playing alternately the cards of either “patriotism” or the need for peace at any cost. The main trump card in such a game can be the hysterical calls of mothers, whose sons are drafted into the army. The mothers, in turn, will be pumped up by the propaganda - collaborationist - media created by the same technologies, which are in the possession of the pro-Russian oligarchy.
Step 3
In a bad scenario, the lustration, which Ukraine now probably needs more than gas, will not be carried out in full, or, even worse, it will quietly die out before it starts. This will provide an opportunity for corrupt officials in the executive branch and in the security forces to continue to sabotage any decisions designed to work for change in the country.
Step 4
Thus, the deputies elected with the help of dirty populist tricks and corrupt officials who continue to sabotage their actions will slow down the reforms necessary to improve the country's health.
Step 5
Against this background, any unpopular decisions made for economic transformation in the country - and they cannot be popular, given the current crisis in the country - will work against the real reformers. And they will be forced to either retreat or leave. Then all. The country will finally slide below the waterline and will be forced to become a satellite of Russia. That is, something will happen, for which, in fact, the war was organized in the South-East of Ukraine.
Step 6
Fortunately, there is also a good scenario. And it is now the most probable, since the mood of the entire Ukrainian society is unlikely to allow that all the efforts spent by the people to defend their independence, to gain an understanding of the country's integrity and the awareness of itself as a single nation that has chosen the European path of development, was crossed out by the narrow interests of a handful of oligarchs or politicians.
Step 7
Yes, the country has more than enough problems: war and a collapsed economy. Moreover, the neighboring unfriendly state is interested in Ukraine sinking as deeply as possible into an economic collapse. It is for this that aggressive propaganda is being conducted in the media, separatists are supported and weapons and mercenaries are being transported to them.
Step 8
But Ukraine has good chances for a successful development of events. The mood of the Ukrainian society and the serious intentions of the West with the help of financial injections and control over them, to carry out in Ukraine what Europe managed to do after World War II, when the Marshall Plan was developed and implemented, is also encouraging.
Step 9
Acting according to the American-European scheme, as well as using the reform experience of modern Georgia, the country is able to carry out all the necessary reforms and, after lustration, cleanse the bureaucratic and security apparatus. After two or four difficult years, progress and prosperity await Ukraine.
