Recently, one of the popular bloggers Forbes published a list of 7 reasons why you should not rejoice at the impending revolution in Ukraine. Taking into account the courage of the Ukrainian people, the author takes a sober look at the prospects of the economic picture.
Instructions
Step 1
The revolution has already happened once.
Once Yushchenko had already defeated Yanukovych with an "orange" revolution, but everything ended in failure: the economy began to decline, and the effectiveness of the new government did not impress the citizens. As a result, Yanukovych returned.
Step 2
Russia is delaying $ 15 billion in financial aid.
The Ukrainian government was counting on this money, but the Russian Federation decided to temporarily delay the transfer of funds until better times. Most likely, Russia will cancel this package of financial assistance - and then in 2-3 weeks Ukraine will have to declare either partial or sovereign default.
Step 3
In the West, they are vigorously discussing but don’t give money.
There is no particular desire for any country to financially support Ukraine's crumbling government structures or the still unformed government. Even Greece was practically tortured at one time, but then throw billions down the drain?
Step 4
The Ukrainians themselves cannot decide whether they need to go to Europe or not.
According to the latest polls, the votes are almost halved: 37% want to join the Customs Union, and 39% are in favor of association with the EU.
Step 5
Russia holds a bunch of economic trump cards up its sleeve.
Suffice it to recall the gas price, which can always be revised, as well as restrictions on imports from Ukraine.
Step 6
The International Monetary Fund will force them to tighten their belts.
If Ukraine is left with no other way but to bow to the IMF, it will have to agree with its strict rules of the so-called "financial discipline". But the problem is not that this could negatively affect the Ukrainian economy, but that the people are unlikely to appreciate the sharp decline in government spending and the end of subsidizing gas and electricity tariffs.
Step 7
The demographic crisis in Ukraine is gaining momentum.
Alas, even in "dying out Russia" the demographic situation is much more encouraging than in Ukraine. And for the current Ukrainian politics, population decline is one of the main factors hindering economic growth.
