In 2010-2011, a number of countries in the Middle East and North Africa were engulfed in a wave of revolutionary protest movements. These events were called the "Arab Spring", and Tunisia became its "cradle". After the overthrow of the presidential regime in Tunisia, the protest spread to Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Jordan, Bahrain, Oman. In March 2011, unrest began in Syria, which has not subsided until now.
The "latent phase" of Syrian tension over time developed into an "aggressive" one: armed clashes broke out between government forces and the opposition. However, the civil war in Syria poses a threat to the entire world peace, so no one should be left on the sidelines.
Experts believe that Lebanon will immediately "flare up" after Syria. The situation in Lebanon has been volatile in recent years. The once prosperous tourist country has become the foreground for battles between various factions, and not only between Sunnis and Shiites. Lebanon has also experienced Israeli aggression. Many leading orientalists are now confident that Lebanon is destined to become the next link in the chain of the spread of instability in the Middle East.
Due to the Syrian crisis, Lebanon has split into two hostile camps. One of them, led by the Hezbollah movement, supports the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The opposing camp, led by the March 14 Movement, is supporting the growing Syrian revolution. If a real “all against all” war breaks out in Syria, it will definitely capture Lebanon.
On the other hand, as noted by Georgy Mirsky, chief researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the potential conflict in Lebanon cannot be compared with other events of the “Arab spring”. Lebanon is a multi-confessional country with a confessional management system. Representatives of all major religions are involved in political decision-making. In this situation, a dictatorship is impossible in Lebanon in principle, which means that there is no reason for an uprising against the alleged "usurper", as happened in Libya and Egypt.
Another danger of the civil war in Syria is the so-called "humanitarian aid" from the United States. If an armed conflict breaks out in Syrian cities, the Americans will "pull" their military bases there, ostensibly to restore and maintain a peaceful situation. Thus, UN troops are moving closer and closer to the cherished Russian borders. Instability throughout the Middle East could be of direct benefit to them, helping to build a strategic bridge. And from the other side, Russia is already propped up by China, which is pulling up its troops to the border, which has become symbolic, in fact.
