KakSimply is a social network of advice, not a political blog. However, I would like to share my vision of the events taking place now. We will consider this advice or my point of view not so much on the situation itself, as on the ways of its adequate and impartial perception. The mass media, due to the specifics of their work, rarely convey objective information, but form, first of all, the emotional background of the population. 5 minutes of news or being on the site - and you are already full of emotions and exclaim in your hearts "oh, they are!", "Yes, we have them!" etc. But man has a great gift - abstract thinking. We have the opportunity to get distracted from what we see and hear, start asking ourselves questions and, answering them, form our own, albeit subjective, idea.
The events taking place now in Ukraine are just a part of a large gameplay that was started in time immemorial. There are participants, goals, rules in this process, but the most important thing is that this game cannot stop. We have lived and have lived for a long time within the framework of a very complex system of geopolitical and economic mechanisms that affect almost all countries. And this system is constantly changing.
Consider the world from the perspective of the major players. There are now three main centers of power: China, Russia and the United States + Europe. Each of these players has their own interests, goals, objectives and certain agreements with smaller players. And there are the initial conditions at the moment in which these players are. What are they?
The United States is the world's largest economy, with a global reserve currency. However, there are a number of interesting points. To begin with, the United States is also the world's largest debtor. Those. for decades, the country borrowed money from other countries for its upkeep. From the point of view of economic theory, a situation where the currency of the world's largest debtor is the reserve currency and the main one for the whole world is not possible. It just can't be. But why is this so? It's all about the status of the country. The United States is the "strongest" player in the political arena. This reassures creditors. Those. the logic is: yes, we see that the United States is borrowing more and more, but they are big and strong, and nothing will happen to them. Oddly enough, a kind of "courtyard" logic works: this bully is the strongest, and he "borrowed" money from us, but nothing, he will definitely return us, as he will certainly become successful. Therefore, in order to maintain its economic status, the United States is simply forced to show the world its political and military strength. This combination is a guarantee of the country's economic stability. A guarantee of the stability of its political elites. This view explains the behavior of the United States in recent decades. Military conflicts, loud political statements, a policy of double standards. With economies and currencies that run counter to logic, they engage in similarly conflicting political and military actions.
Russia has historically been a strong player. Over the past 10 years, our influence on the world has increased enough, and we began to noticeably interfere with some of the US actions. There is no malice in this game. It's just a law: if there is a strong player in the game, he can interfere with the strategy of another player by any of his actions. Strengthening Russia is a potential threat to the status of the United States. Those. at some point, the next US actions demonstrating strength may meet resistance from another strong player. This happened recently with Syria. What actions should be taken by a player whose positions are increasingly threatened by another? He must weaken his position. These are just the rules of the game. Many people think: "But why can't you just stop playing and just live in peace?" Unfortunately, there is no way out of this game, and to stop playing is to lose.
Imagine that you stop playing Monopoly. In a short period of time, other players will buy up all the objects around you and begin to ravage you on the sly. In reality, the same thing happens. So, the US strategy is to weaken Russia (and in order not to be biased - the strategy of Russia is inversely proportional). And here such a unique opportunity appears - Ukraine. Neighbor, brotherly people, torn apart by contradictions since the secession. I will not argue that such a state of the country was artificially maintained from the outside, but the latest events were provoked absolutely precisely, deliberately. Russia was distracted by the Olympics.
The move has been made. An active game of two main parties began, where the main task is either to consolidate the success, or not to lose position, or to minimize the damage. Everything that we are now seeing in the media is part of a general game with its own specific tasks to weaken or strengthen positions.
Let's analyze the latest events. After the beginning of the Crimean history, hysteria arose in the media about the ruble exchange rate. On Monday, the rate really dropped sharply due to panic in the markets and the population. Surely, if you yourself did not begin to convert your savings into dollars (note, by the way, that you are buying up the opposing player's currency), then you definitely succumbed to a general panic. What's next? The Central Bank had to calm down the panic in the markets through active foreign exchange interventions. On Monday, March 3, the Central Bank spent almost $ 10 billion to meet demand for the currency to prevent the ruble from falling further. This weakened Russia's reserves. Those. information war is also aimed at weakening the player's position. I will not further enumerate the actions of the parties in the following days. In general, the logic is clear. This is a big multidimensional chess game. One of thousands of games played in the framework of world geopolitics over the past thousand years.
How does this approach to assessing the situation help? It allows you not to panic and make bad decisions. I will not praise our government and the president now, but this game is played by professionals in any case. The task of the inhabitants of the country, since you consider yourself to be its inhabitants, at such a moment is not to start interfering with your own country. No one will fight in the Crimea with their own brothers. This is just a political move. One of many. The ruble is not devalued. There is no economic reason for this. Nobody will wage war with us. Neither real nor economic. All countries and economies are too tied to each other. Everyone will suffer. This is a game of poker where each player has a certain set of cards and bluffs, hoping to win the hand.
The saddest thing is that everything that happens hits ordinary people hard. Tears, blood and grief of ordinary people stand behind all these games. This is an inhuman game, but these are the rules of this world. Politics is considered "dirty business" not because they steal there. We have to make forced decisions that bring grief to our people. This is a great moral burden. And for most politicians, because of this, the center of compassion simply atrophies. Think of the doctors. They have the same thing. How long do you think the doctor will last if they become emotionally involved in the grief of the patient and his relatives? He'll just quit or get drunk. Callousness and cruelty are a mandatory characteristic of certain professions. And politics is one of them.
Let's hope that the situation will be resolved, and this party will end soon.
