Belarus is one of the most loyal and reliable partners of Russia in the post-Soviet space. Of course, there were periods of cooling in relations between the countries, but even then the development of the idea of a union state continued. At the end of 2018, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko unexpectedly entered into open conflict with the Russian authorities, refusing to further integrate his country and defending its sovereignty.
Relations between the two countries
The history of the unification of Russia and Belarus lasts about 20 years, when an agreement on the union state was first concluded. Each of the parties all these years received its advantages from this cooperation. Russia secured control over its borders with the European Union, the possibility of deploying military bases, and in recent years, in the context of a sanctions policy, "buffer" imports from countries included in the black list. And Belarus was making good money supplying its Russian neighbor with “local” shrimps, red fish and pineapples. And as a result of the deterioration of relations between Russia and Ukraine, the resale of oil and gas was added here.
In addition, the Minsk authorities could always count on financial support from Moscow: benefits for gas, oil and other natural resources, lucrative loans, and partial cancellation of debts. Up to a certain point, this situation suited both parties. After the events in Ukraine, the Belarusian leader Lukashenko, apparently, felt a real danger to the country's sovereignty, assessing the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbass. A semblance of cooling has been outlined in the relations between the fraternal states.
Lukashenko began to communicate more with his European neighbors, to be friends with the new Ukrainian government, acting as a mediator in negotiations with Russia. By the way, he refused to recognize the independence of Abkhazia, South Ossetia or the annexation of Crimea. But the Belarusian authorities cannot openly break off relations with Moscow, otherwise they will have an unenviable Ukrainian fate.
Refusal to join
There have been talks about joining Belarus to Russia for a long time. Another wave rose in 2018, when Moscow announced a reduction in the supply of oil products to the neighboring state, which will cause Minsk to suffer significant financial losses. Lukashenko said that he was actually being forced to gradually unite with Russia in exchange for tax breaks and other financial concessions.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Dmitry Medvedev, in turn, called the steps to create a common tax and emission space as the next stage in the integration of the two countries within the framework of the 1999 union state agreement. As for the economic policy of Russia, it is dictated by the difficult situation in the country, and not by the desire to force the neighboring state to join.
Expert opinions
Lukashenka said that he would not allow the loss of the sovereignty of Belarus. However, based on the current situation, he will have to make concessions. Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of President Putin, speaks of the creation of "supranational" structures uniting the main spheres of interaction between the two countries. What will be the result of this work? Journalists and experts are again wondering if Belarus can become part of Russia. Opinions, as usual, are very contradictory.
For example, the Ukrainian press writes that this issue has long been resolved by the Russian authorities. The main reason for the accession of Belarus is called the difficult political situation in Russia and the shaky rating of Putin, which was seriously undermined by the pension reform. To regain the confidence of citizens, he needs some kind of bright and unconditional achievement, as was the case with Crimea. In addition, the creation of a new Russian-Belarusian state implies the adoption of a new Constitution and, in a sense, the "zeroing" of power, which means that Putin will be able to fight for victory in the next presidential election. Therefore, the entry of Belarus into Russia, according to Ukrainian experts, is not far off. Lukashenka opposes this, knowing full well that he will lose his former power and influence, and his chances of becoming the president of the united state are minimal.
Russian journalists and political observers are not so categorical in their assessments. They see nothing in the accession of Belarus to Russia, except for the emergence of another source of expenditures and state subsidies. The political advantages that this step will bring are fully preserved in the current form of interaction between the two countries. Therefore, the Russian authorities will not rush and take on the problematic Belarusian neighbor.
For now, negotiations between Russia and Belarus continue. How they will end, none of the parties can say. Experts agree that in the near future there will be serious shifts in relations between the two countries. Time will tell what kind of changes Russia and Belarus are expecting.
