For a long time, some people wondered whether historical events occur chaotically, by chance and coincidence, or whether they obey some laws. To this day, this issue is a subject of discussion, causing heated discussions. Many historians, philosophers, economists, psychologists are still trying to comprehend the laws of historical processes.
Reasoning of scientists of the XVIIII-XIX centuries. about the historical pattern
In 1798, the book "Experience of the Population Law", written by the English economist T. Malthus, was published. The author argued that all negative historical events and especially grandiose cataclysms like wars, revolutions, are explained by the discrepancy between the amount of natural resources and the population. As the population grows, according to Malthus, exponentially, and resources increase only in arithmetic progression, this naturally leads to poverty, social upheaval, and wars.
At the beginning of the 19th century, the French philosopher Auguste Cohn, a student and associate of the famous utopian Saint-Simon, made statements that history is the same exact science as physics or mathematics, and that any historical event is natural.
In the second half of the 19th century, the theory of Marxism emerged, named after its founder Karl Marx. According to her, any historical event can be explained by the development of productive forces, which, in turn, leads to changes in production relations.
Some researchers (for example, G. Spencer, O. Spengler) came to the conclusion that human society in its development completely repeats the biological organism. Just as any living creature is born, matures, flourishes, and then grows old and dies, the people or the state obey the same laws.
How they tried to comprehend the historical pattern in the XX century
The famous British historian and sociologist Arnold Toby in his fundamental 12-volume work "Comprehension of History" analyzed the information known to science about 21 civilizations. On the basis of this analysis, he came to the conclusion that any significant historical event is always, as it were, a response to a challenge. This “challenge” can be many factors: external threat, internal problems, natural disaster, overpopulation, etc.
In 1958, a group of French scientists announced the creation of a "new historical science" based on the theory of cyclical changes. And in 1974, Immanuel Wallerstein substantiated the historical pattern by the uneven economic development of different regions of the world. Attempts to comprehend the regularity of historical events continue to this day.
