Globalization is a process that leads to the formation of a world market, in the space of which national barriers are eliminated and uniform economic, social and legal conditions are created. Globalization has supporters and opponents, for the reason that its consequences can be either humane or inhuman. What could be a favorable outcome of events?
Contemporary sociologists and analysts view globalization from the point of view of studying the positions of the main players: the United States of America, Russia, the countries of the Islamic region and the so-called “eastern tigers,” as Japan, China and India have been dubbed. It is these forces that determine the contours of the future.
Four scenarios
According to the American National Intelligence Council, which is purposefully working to predict the globalization process (Project 2020), in ten years, in theory, there could be “four worlds”. The description of these worlds was influenced by modern trends and the alignment of various social and political forces.
The worst case scenario is called the Ring of Fear. The danger posed by terrorism, cyber attacks, a new level of crime, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction across the planet are felt everywhere. People survive in the “fear begets fear” situation.
The next world is codenamed "New Caliphate". It is based on radical Islam, and it is the foundation of a new system. Islam deals a crushing blow to the values of European civilization.
The third scenario leaves an opportunity to preserve the current state of affairs - the United States retains its dominant role, while Russia continues to resist.
The latter scenario assumes the rapid economic and technological development of the countries that make up the union of "eastern tigers". This scenario will change the direction of globalization processes, which will lead to the erasure of Western national barriers.
For some reason, recent events in Ukraine and the Middle East confirm the dire trends outlined by analysts. However, let's try to highlight the positive aspects of globalization.
Resistance
The above American development of future scenarios focuses on factors of an economic, military and political nature. However, there is a cultural component of the globalization process that holds back the worst development scenarios.
The loss of cultural identity is actively opposed by Japan, India and China. Perhaps because the people inhabiting these territories created not just cultures, but civilizations. The Slavs and Europeans are more likely united by the concept of "Christian civilization" than separated, therefore it is more expedient for these peoples to unite than to fight each other. For the countries of the Middle East, the most accurate formulation is “Islamic world”.
There is a positive moment in this - resistance to the loss of national identity, which will allow to preserve in hundreds of years the unique diversity of cultures and traditions, to live in peace and tranquility, and not to be locked in a circle of fear.
A positive aspect of globalization is the elimination of the gap in economic and social development between developed and developing countries. Until now, the phrase “developing” is used in relation to the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Globalization leads not only to economic development, but also to social development. Education will become more accessible in those regions where it is now difficult even to learn to read and write. The emergence of new specialists will have a beneficial effect on all areas of human activity.
It is not possible for both supporters and opponents of globalization to stop the process, including the interpenetration of cultures. It is necessary to look for ways and solutions to reduce the harm from globalization to zero.
