Recently, talk about raising the retirement age has been heard more and more often. This measure is becoming a reality and economically inevitable, since the number of pensioners is increasing, and the number of working citizens, on the contrary, is decreasing. The RF Ministry of Finance considers raising the retirement age to be the very measure that will help overcome the existing deficit of the Pension Fund.
The reform carried out earlier did not bring the country's pension system out of the plight, and experts believe that the time is not far off when the Pension Fund will simply not be able to fulfill its obligations.
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation presented to the departments involved in the development of the pension reform its calculations, according to which the deficit of the Pension Fund can be eliminated by 2029 by a smooth, multi-stage increase in the age of those who go on a well-deserved rest. According to these calculations, the first stage of the increase should be expected already in 2015. The final retirement age is planned to be 63, and it will be the same for both men and women.
As is customary, in its calculations the Ministry of Finance refers to examples of Western countries in which the retirement age is 65-67 years. However, the calculation does not take into account the fact that the average life expectancy in developed countries is more than 70 years for men and about 80 years for women, while in Russia these indicators are equal to 64.3 and 76.1 years, respectively.
The very first glance at these indicators suggests that the chances of living to retire at 63 for many men will be unrealistic. Taking into account the fact that the proposals of the Ministry of Finance include an increase in the minimum work experience guaranteeing a pension from 5 years to 15, men who have worked for 14 years will have to work until the same 64 years, which is an indicator of average mortality, to receive a pension.
Representatives of the Ministry of Finance, however, say that this indicator is greatly influenced by the high mortality rate characteristic of young people. Taking it into account, according to the Minister of Finance, the average statistical life expectancy of Russian men will rise to the European average.
It is hoped that the package of proposals of the Ministry of Finance to overcome the PFR deficit, including raising the retirement age, will not be accepted unconditionally. The Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade are also opposed, who believe that the problem is not at all in demography, but in low rates of insurance premiums and the lack of funding to ensure early pensions. In July 2012, it is expected that the agencies involved in the development of the pension reform will report the preliminary results of their decisions to the Cabinet of Ministers. It is planned that the reform project will be completed by October 2012, and it will begin to be implemented from January 2014.
The government will not be able to avoid raising the retirement age as long as the country is only a supplier of raw materials and no competitive production is launched that can reduce the economy's dependence on oil and gas dollar infusions.
