Giving a forecast for the development of a particular country is a thankless task. Indeed, its development is influenced by a number of circumstances that can change literally at any moment. And no politician or economist will be able to accurately promise these changes, especially with a high degree of probability. But still, what are the forecasts regarding the development of Russia in the coming years?
Instructions
Step 1
The economy of the Russian Federation is closely connected with the world one, therefore, it is directly influenced by all economic ups and downs and crises. For example, experts from the World Bank (WB) predict that the overall growth of the world economy, recovering from the 2008 crisis, over the next 2-3 years will be about 3.5%. As for Russia, the forecasts of these economists are more modest. They believe that growth will not exceed 2.7%, and this is at best. However, this is also a very good indicator, since in the past 2013 the growth of the Russian economy was only 1.4% (some economists argue that in reality it was less and did not exceed 1.3%).
Step 2
Specialists from the RF Ministry of Economy are less optimistic. For example, Minister Alexei Valentinovich Ulyukaev said that according to his forecasts, Russia's GDP growth will not exceed 2.5%, but most likely will be even lower. This is due to a number of reasons, among which the most important are a decrease in the volume of investments in the Russian economy both from Russian business and from foreign partners, and a drop in consumer demand. Let us remind that earlier the Ministry of Economy predicted significantly higher growth, about 3% in 2014, and in the range from 3.3% to 3.3% in the next two years.
Step 3
However, all these conclusions are conditional to a certain extent. The fact is that the rapidly developing crisis around Ukraine greatly reduces the ability to give any probable forecast of Russia's economic development. If it comes to sanctions against specific sectors of the Russian economy (which the West has repeatedly frightened), this will undoubtedly play a negative role, although with a competent economic policy, losses from sanctions can be significantly reduced. In the worst case scenario (if Russia is forced to intervene in an armed conflict between the new government in Kiev and pro-Russian militias in Donetsk and Luhansk regions), the damage from direct costs of fighting and sanctions from the West can be very large.
Step 4
It is also difficult to make a long-term forecast of how the possible reorientation of cooperation from West to East will affect the state of the Russian economy. Especially in light of the recently concluded large-scale contract for the supply of natural gas with the People's Republic of China.
