The future of Russia worries not only the country's political elite, but also ordinary citizens. Observing the periodically arising protests against the political and economic situation, many Russians ask themselves the question: will the confrontation between the authorities and the opposition lead to a full-scale civil war?
The alignment of political forces in modern Russia
To answer the question about the prospects for a civil war in Russia, it is necessary to understand what the balance of power is in modern Russian society. Analysts conditionally single out two main camps that stand behind the adoption of fateful decisions regarding the foreign and domestic policy of the state.
The first group seeks to minimize the independence and sovereignty of Russia. Its representatives believe that in the modern world, individual states no longer play a dominant role and should be replaced by supranational entities. This position is in line with the notion of a "new world order" that has become entrenched in the West, guarded by powerful transnational corporations.
Other political circles, on the contrary, are more focused on expanding Russia's national sovereignty, strengthening the role of the state within the country and in the international arena. This position is taken by those who are interested in conducting politics and economics in Russia independently and independent of external influence. In other words, we are talking about the national bourgeoisie.
The political elite that today maintains control over the country belongs precisely to the second group.
Prospects for the Civil War
The two above-mentioned groups in power structures in their pure form practically do not occur. The activities of these circles are sometimes contradictory and associated with a clash of opposing tendencies, which are accompanied by compromises, which do not exclude, however, a veiled struggle for power and influence in the domestic and foreign policy of the state.
The political groups described above are the main forces that, after entering an open struggle, can initiate an armed civil confrontation. It should be borne in mind that a civil war, if it is nevertheless unleashed, will involve all segments of the population in the maelstrom of events, including those who will not receive any benefits from participation in the conflict.
The civil war in Russia is beneficial today only to representatives of those political circles who intend to gain access to power.
The political events that have taken place in Russia in the past two or three years clearly indicate that the so-called opposition, which organizes protest rallies, in fact does not express the mood of the broad popular masses. It implements the decisions of those representatives of international capital who would like to see Russia weak and completely dependent on the powerful West.
The consequences of a clash of conflicting interests of elites can be judged by the events that have taken place since the beginning of 2014 in Ukraine. The conflict, which the leaders of the local opposition present as the people's struggle for a just power, is in fact artificially fueled by Western politicians. For Russia, the events taking place in the neighboring state should be a serious warning.
Today, not a single analyst undertakes to assert with complete certainty that a civil war is bound to flare up in Russia. Much will depend on changes in the alignment of political forces, as well as on the readiness of the United States and the European Union countries to actively support the political opponents of the ruling regime in Russia.
